China's H1 2026 ODI Rises 3.8% but BRI Investment Drops 11.1%: The Numbers Behind the Divergence

中国2026上半年ODI增长3.8%但一带一路投资下降11.1%：数据分歧背后的结构性信号

China's total outbound direct investment (ODI) across all industries reached 596.42 billion yuan ($86.53 billion) in the first half of 2026, up 3.8 percent year-on-year, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) in late July 2026. Domestic investors made non-financial direct investments in 6,867 overseas companies across 144 countries and regions, totaling 453.06 billion yuan.

据商务部与国家外汇管理局2026年7月底联合发布的数据，中国全行业对外直接投资（ODI）在2026年上半年达到5964.2亿元人民币（约865.3亿美元），同比增长3.8%。境内投资者对全球144个国家和地区的6867家境外企业进行了非金融类直接投资，累计金额4530.6亿元人民币。

However, beneath the headline growth, a sharp divergence emerges: non-financial ODI into Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner countries fell 11.1 percent year-on-year to 120.77 billion yuan — a contraction that stands in stark contrast to the record $49.8 billion in BRI investment commitments tracked separately by the Fudan University Green Finance & Development Center for the same period.

但在总体增长之下，一组关键分歧浮现：对一带一路共建国家的非金融类ODI同比下降11.1%至1207.7亿元人民币——这与复旦大学绿色金融与发展中心同期追踪的创纪录498亿美元BRI投资承诺形成鲜明反差。

The apparent contradiction reflects two fundamentally different measurement approaches. MOFCOM and SAFE track actual capital outflows — money that has physically crossed borders through China's foreign exchange system. The Fudan report, by contrast, captures announced investment commitments and construction contract values, which may span multi-year implementation timelines and include financing from non-Chinese sources, local currency arrangements, and reinvested earnings that do not immediately register as cross-border flows.

这一表面矛盾反映了两种本质不同的统计口径。商务部与外汇局跟踪的是实际跨境资本流动——通过中国外汇体系实际出境的资金。复旦报告则捕捉已宣布的投资承诺和工程建设合同价值，这些可能跨越多年度实施周期，并包括非中方来源融资、本币安排及未立即体现为跨境流动的再投资收益。

The turnover of Chinese companies' contracted overseas projects grew 8 percent year-on-year to 606.26 billion yuan, while project turnover in BRI partner countries rose 11.8 percent to 520.71 billion yuan — accounting for nearly 86 percent of all overseas project revenue. This suggests that while new equity-style ODI into BRI countries may be moderating, construction activity under existing contracts continues to accelerate.

中国企业的对外承包工程完成营业额同比增长8%至6062.6亿元人民币，其中在共建国家的营业额增长11.8%至5207.1亿元人民币——占全部海外工程收入的近86%。这表明，尽管新流入一带一路国家的股权型ODI可能正在放缓，但既有合同项下的建设施工活动仍在加速推进。

For businesses and investors, the key takeaway is twofold. First, China's overseas investment is becoming more geographically diversified — total ODI growth of 3.8 percent alongside falling BRI ODI implies rising allocations to non-BRI destinations such as Southeast Asia's advanced manufacturing hubs, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund co-investments, and Latin American critical mineral projects. Second, the shift from equity-based greenfield ODI to contract-based EPC (engineering, procurement, construction) engagement reflects a maturing BRI model where Chinese firms increasingly function as builders and technology partners rather than sole equity financiers.

对中国企业和投资者而言，核心启示有二。其一，中国海外投资的地域分布日益多元化——总体ODI增长3.8%而一带一路ODI下降，意味着资金正更多地流向非BRI目的地，如东南亚先进制造业枢纽、中东主权财富基金联合投资以及拉美关键矿产项目。其二，从股权投资型绿地ODI向工程承包型EPC参与模式的转变，反映出一带一路模式正在成熟：中国企业正越来越多地扮演建设者和技术合作方角色，而非单一的股权出资方。