Global FDI Rebounds 6% to $1.6 Trillion but Recovery Stays Narrow and Fragile / 全球FDI回升6%至1.6万亿美元，但复苏狭窄而脆弱

政策核心：两年连跌后首次回升

UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2026, released on 7 July 2026, shows global foreign direct investment rose 6% to $1.6 trillion in 2025, ending two consecutive years of decline. The headline figure is 64% higher than in 2020, and growth was observed across all regions.

联合国贸发会议《2026年世界投资报告》于2026年7月7日发布，显示2025年全球外国直接投资（FDI）回升6%至1.6万亿美元，终结了连续两年的下滑。这一总量较2020年高出64%，且各区域均录得增长。

结构性分化：发达经济体拿走大头

Developed economies received $723 billion, up 11%, while developing economies saw a much flatter trajectory. The recovery remains narrow and fragile: a handful of large projects and a few host countries account for a disproportionate share of the increase.

发达经济体吸收7230亿美元，增长11%，而发展中经济体的回升明显平缓。报告指出此轮复苏狭窄且脆弱：少数大型项目和少数东道国贡献了不成比例的增量。

| 指标 | 2025年表现 |

|---|---|

| 全球FDI总额 | 1.6万亿美元（+6%）|

| 发达经济体流入 | 7230亿美元（+11%）|

| 相较2020年 | +64% |

企业该做什么

For Chinese firms planning outbound investment, the narrowing recovery means competition for quality projects is intensifying. Investors should prioritise jurisdictions with stable regulatory frameworks and verified investment-promotion commitments rather than headline incentive packages.

计划对外投资的中资企业需注意：复苏收窄意味着优质项目的争夺正在加剧。投资者应优先考虑监管框架稳定、投资促进承诺可核实的法域，而非仅看宣传性的激励方案。

Second, the concentration of FDI in a few host countries suggests due diligence should go deeper on sector-level competition — entering a market where global capital is already clustered can compress returns. Cross-check UNCTAD country fact sheets against your own project pipeline before committing capital.

其次，FDI向少数东道国集中，意味着尽调应深入到行业层面的竞争格局——进入全球资本已高度聚集的市场，可能压低回报。在投入资金前，建议将UNCTAD国别数据与自身项目储备交叉比对。

Third, track the report's regional breakdowns for early signals of policy shifts. When a country's share of global FDI drops sharply, it often precedes or follows a change in entry rules or tax treatment.

第三，持续追踪报告的区域细分数据，以捕捉政策变动的早期信号。当某国占全球FDI份额骤降时，往往先于或伴随准入规则、税收待遇的调整。

对企业出海的意义

This report is not merely a statistical snapshot — it is the reference document that host-country investment agencies and multilateral lenders use when assessing project pipelines. For Chinese companies weighing manufacturing relocation or resource investment abroad, the key takeaway is that capital is chasing a shrinking pool of credible destinations.

A 6% global rebound looks healthy on the surface, but when growth concentrates in a few markets, the practical effect for late movers is higher entry costs and tougher negotiation leverage. Firms should use the country-level data to test whether a target market is genuinely open or merely appearing in aggregated totals.

The narrow and fragile characterisation also matters for risk planning. Projects that depend on a single host government's incentive regime carry concentration risk that a diversified portfolio of smaller, verified commitments can offset. In short: the rebound is real, but it rewards selectivity over speed.