China's Ministry of Commerce released official data on August 25, 2026, showing that Chinese enterprises injected RMB 151.99 billion of non-financial direct investment into Belt and Road partner countries during January–July 2026. The equivalent USD amount reached 22.1 billion, establishing a measurable baseline of active project demand across host markets. These figures originate from official project filings and capital remittance records, not estimates.
中国商务部于2026年8月25日发布官方数据，2026年1月至7月，中国企业对共建"一带一路"伙伴国完成非金融类直接投资1519.9亿元人民币。按美元计价为221亿美元，这为东道国活跃的项目需求提供了可量化的基准。上述数据源自官方项目备案与资金汇出记录，并非估算值。
The RMB-denominated figure fell 5.5% year-on-year, while the USD-denominated figure declined only 1.4% over the same period. The 4.1 percentage-point gap between the two contractions indicates that exchange-rate movements accounted for the bulk of the statistical decline rather than a sharp withdrawal of physical projects. Enterprises should read this divergence as evidence that underlying project pipelines remain intact.
以人民币计价的投资额同比回落5.5%，而以美元计价的同期降幅仅为1.4%。两个口径之间4.1个百分点的落差表明，统计降幅的主要部分是汇率波动所致，而非实体项目大规模撤离。企业应将这一差异解读为潜在项目储备仍然完整的信号。
Historical disbursement patterns from the same data series show that energy, transport infrastructure, and manufacturing absorb over 70% of annual outflows. A 22.1 billion USD flow within seven months implies that host governments have released corresponding concession rights, procurement lots, and production licenses to attract capital. The slowdown in growth rate also shortens incumbent waiting lists for new bidders.
历史拨款模式显示，能源、交通基础设施和制造业吸纳了年度资金流出的70%以上。七个月内221亿美元的资金流意味着东道国政府已释放相应的特许经营权、采购标包及生产许可以吸引资本。增速放缓同时也缩短了新入局者在候选名单上的等待周期。
Chinese engineering and energy groups should cross-reference the 22.1 billion USD flow against sovereign credit ratings and local-currency volatility indices. Markets where the USD-denominated decline sits below the 1.4% average—implying stronger capital retention—deserve immediate allocation of pre-bid resources. Conversely, markets exhibiting RMB-only contractions above 5.5% signal elevated repatriation risk and should trigger stricter joint-venture terms.
中国工程与能源集团应将221亿美元的资金流向与主权信用评级及本币波动指数进行交叉比对。美元计价降幅低于1.4%平均水平的市场——意味着资本留存能力更强——值得立即配置投前资源。相反，仅出现人民币口径5.5%以上收缩的市场则暗示汇回风险上升，应触发更严格的合资条款。
| Action Item | Specific Content | Time Window |
|-------------|------------------|-------------|
| Lock target countries | Filter host countries with over USD 100 million inflow using Ministry of Commerce country guides | September 2026 |
| Align industries | Track government tenders in power, rail transit, and construction equipment | Continuous |
| Currency hedge | Use USD quotations in markets with <1.4% USD decline to mitigate RMB volatility | Contract stage |
| Secure position | Approach state project owners during slowdown to negotiate better equity ratios | Q4 2026 |
| 行动项 | 具体内容 | 时间窗口 |
|--------|----------|----------|
| 锁定目标国 | 利用商务部国别指南，筛选资金流入超1亿美元的东道国 | 2026年9月 |
| 行业对齐 | 持续跟踪电力、轨道交通及工程装备领域的政府招标 | 持续 |
| 汇率对冲 | 在美元降幅低于1.4%的市场采用美元报价，降低人民币波动风险 | 签约阶段 |
| 竞争卡位 | 利用增速放缓期对接国有项目业主，争取更优股比与本地化比例 | 2026年四季度 |
第一步：立即下载商务部2026版《对外投资合作国别（地区）指南》，圈定1-7月中国资金存量超过50亿元人民币的东道国清单。第二步：在9月至12月的招标淡季前置投标准备，针对能源与基建类项目向当地投资促进机构提交意向书，利用美元口径仅1.4%降幅所验证的市场韧性锁定合资份额。不要等待全年数据——年底项目排队将加剧，当前窗口期剩余不足四个月。
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