GCC's $250 Billion Railway: How the Iran War Is Accelerating a Land-Based Alternative to Hormuz — and What It Means for the Belt and Road

海湾2500亿美元铁路：伊朗战争如何加速陆上替代霍尔木兹海峡——对一带一路意味着什么

The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis has exposed a fundamental vulnerability in global energy and trade security. With 230 loaded oil tankers stranded inside the Persian Gulf as of April 2026 and maritime traffic through the world's most critical chokepoint severely disrupted since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have found a powerful new reason to accelerate a long-stalled infrastructure project: the GCC Railway, a 2,177-kilometer cross-border rail network with a projected cost of US$250 billion.

2026年霍尔木兹海峡危机暴露了全球能源和贸易安全的根本脆弱性。截至2026年4月，230艘满载油轮被困波斯湾内，自美伊战争爆发以来，通过这一全球最关键咽喉的海运严重中断。海湾合作委员会六国找到了一个强有力的新理由来加速长期停滞的基础设施项目：海湾铁路——一条全长2,177公里、预计耗资2,500亿美元的跨境铁路网。

At the April 2026 GCC emergency summit in Jeddah, leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman pledged to expedite completion of the railway, with the director of the GCC Rail Authority confirming the project had reached 50% completion and remained on track for operational status by 2030. The UAE launched Etihad Rail passenger services in June 2026, connecting Abu Dhabi to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman — the first tangible demonstration that the network is moving from blueprint to reality.

在2026年4月吉达海湾紧急峰会上，沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特和阿曼领导人承诺加速铁路完工。海湾铁路管理局局长确认项目已完成50%，有望在2030年前投入运营。阿联酋于2026年6月推出阿提哈德铁路客运服务，连接阿布扎比与阿曼湾的富查伊拉——这是铁路网从蓝图走向现实的第一个具体信号。

For China's Belt and Road Initiative, the GCC Railway represents a strategic missing link. The railway's terminals at Fujairah (UAE) and Sohar (Oman) on the Gulf of Oman bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, offering a land-based route to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. This corridor aligns directly with BRI's Maritime Silk Road and creates the potential for a China-Central Asia-Iran-GCC rail continuum that would link the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway — now under construction with four tunnels already excavated — to Gulf markets through Turkey, Iraq or Saudi Arabia's planned Landbridge to the Red Sea.

对中国一带一路倡议而言，海湾铁路是一个战略缺失环节。铁路网络的终点——阿曼湾的富查伊拉港（阿联酋）和索哈尔港（阿曼）——完全绕开霍尔木兹海峡，提供通往阿拉伯海和印度洋的陆路通道。这条走廊与一带一路"海上丝绸之路"直接对接，并有望形成中国—中亚—伊朗—海湾铁路连续体：将正在建设中的中吉乌铁路（4座隧道已开工）通过土耳其、伊拉克或沙特规划的红海陆桥连接到海湾市场。

Momentum is building on multiple fronts. Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding in June 2026 on railway connectivity, including plans to revive the century-old Hejaz Railway. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), backed by India, the EU and the US, runs parallel to the GCC Railway for portions of its route. Saudi Arabia has also signed the design contract for its 1,500-kilometer Landbridge railway linking Riyadh to Jeddah on the Red Sea — a project that could connect Gulf cargo directly to ships bound for the Suez Canal.

多方势头正在汇聚。2026年6月沙特与土耳其签署铁路互联互通谅解备忘录，包括复兴百年汉志铁路的计划。由印度、欧盟和美国支持的印度—中东—欧洲经济走廊（IMEC）与海湾铁路存在部分路线重叠。沙特还签署了连接利雅得至红海吉达的1,500公里陆桥铁路设计合同——该项目可将海湾货物直接连接至苏伊士运河方向的船只。

The commercial implications for Chinese firms are substantial. Chinese railway construction companies and equipment manufacturers — including CRRC and China Railway Construction Corporation — have extensive experience in the Middle East and Central Asian rail markets. The GCC's shift toward non-oil diversification under Saudi Vision 2030 and UAE We the UAE 2031 aligns with China's "Small yet Beautiful" BRI approach, which prioritizes commercially viable, partner-driven projects over sovereign lending. As Gulf sovereign wealth funds, including Saudi Arabia's PIF and the UAE's Mubadala, deepen their presence in Chinese markets, joint financing arrangements for rail connectivity between Central Asia and the Gulf become increasingly plausible.

对中国企业的商业影响是巨大的。中国铁路建设企业和设备制造商——包括中国中车和中国铁建——在中东和中亚铁路市场拥有丰富经验。海湾国家在沙特2030愿景和阿联酋2031愿景下的非石油多元化转型，与中国一带一路"小而美"模式高度契合——后者优先选择商业可行、伙伴驱动的项目，而非主权贷款。随着沙特公共投资基金（PIF）和阿联酋穆巴达拉等海湾主权财富基金在中国市场持续深耕，中亚与海湾之间的铁路互联互通联合融资安排正变得越来越可行。

However, significant obstacles remain. Iraq's political instability, Syria's reconstruction challenges, and the unresolved Iran conflict complicate overland routes to Europe. The GCC Railway's standard gauge specification and European train control system (ETCS Level 2) differ from China's railway standards, potentially limiting interoperability. Nevertheless, the strategic calculus has shifted decisively: in a world where one-fifth of global oil trade can be held hostage by a single strait, a railway that connects the Gulf to the world without passing through Hormuz is no longer a luxury — it is an imperative.

然而，重大障碍仍然存在。伊拉克的政治不稳定、叙利亚的重建挑战以及尚未解决的伊朗冲突，使通往欧洲的陆路变得复杂。海湾铁路采用的标准轨距规格和欧洲列车控制系统（ETCS Level 2）与中国铁路标准不同，可能限制互操作性。尽管如此，战略考量已经发生决定性转变：在一个全球五分之一的石油贸易可能被一条海峡卡住喉咙的世界里，一条能够将海湾与世界连接起来而不经过霍尔木兹的铁路，不再是锦上添花——而是生死攸关的必要条件。