Indonesia has slashed its national nickel mining quota by approximately 30% for 2026, capping output at 250–260 million wet metric tonnes — down from 379 million tonnes in 2025 — as part of a sweeping downstream value-capture strategy that directly affects Chinese firms controlling over half of the country's nickel processing capacity.
印尼已将2026年全国镍矿开采配额削减约30%，上限设定为2.5亿至2.6亿湿吨，较2025年的3.79亿吨大幅下降。这一全面的下游价值捕获战略直接影响着控制该国镍加工产能过半的中资企业。
The Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Ministry confirmed on July 31 that no comprehensive additions to the national nickel production quota will be granted, with exceptions only for domestic smelters facing immediate raw material shortages. "There will be no increase for nickel, except to catch up on smelters that are still short of supply," said Director General of Minerals and Coal Tri Winarno, adding that any approved adjustments would be "not significant."
印尼能源与矿产资源部7月31日确认，不会对全国镍产量配额进行任何全面增加，仅在个别国内冶炼厂面临直接原料短缺时例外。矿产和煤炭总司长特里·维纳诺表示："镍的配额不会增加，除非是为了弥补仍存在供应缺口的冶炼厂。"并补充说任何获批的调整都"不会很大"。
The policy package consists of three reinforcing measures. First, Indonesia has stopped approving new licenses for plants producing only basic products such as nickel pig iron and matte — new factories must commit to refining into battery-grade materials such as nickel sulfate or cathode material. Second, the quota system now rewards companies that move further down the value chain: Australian-listed Nickel Industries received an increased 2026 allocation specifically for building a battery-grade plant. Third, since April 2026, the government has rewritten the ore pricing formula to include cobalt, iron, and chromium — metals previously handed to processors for free — shifting revenue from processors' margins to miners and state coffers.
该政策组合由三项相互强化的措施构成。第一，印尼已停止为仅生产镍生铁和冰镍等基础产品的工厂发放新许可证——新工厂必须承诺进一步精炼为硫酸镍或正极材料等电池级材料。第二，配额制度如今奖励向下游价值链延伸的企业：澳大利亚上市公司Nickel Industries因其在建电池级工厂而获得2026年配额增加。第三，自2026年4月起，政府重写了矿石定价公式，将钴、铁、铬纳入计价——这些金属此前免费交给加工商——将收入从加工商利润端转移到矿商和国家财政。
The impact is most visible at Weda Bay, the world's largest nickel mine, jointly owned by China's Tsingshan (51.3%), France's Eramet (37.8%), and state miner Antam (10%). Its output was slashed by more than 70%, and mining there halted entirely by the end of May 2026, according to Asia Times. Additionally, the RKAB permit validity period was shortened from three years to one year as of mid-2026, giving the government annual leverage over production ceilings.
影响在全球最大镍矿——韦达湾矿最为明显，该矿由中国青山集团（51.3%）、法国埃赫曼（37.8%）和印尼国有矿商安塔姆（10%）合资拥有。据《亚洲时报》报道，其产量被削减超过70%，2026年5月底已完全停产。此外，RKAB许可证有效期自2026年中起从三年缩短为一年，使政府得以每年对产量上限进行调控。
The market is reacting in real time. Nickel pig iron remains oversupplied — the International Nickel Study Group estimated a global surplus of approximately 212,000 tonnes in 2025, expected to widen this year — while battery-grade materials are tight enough that prices spike on any supply disruption signal. On August 4, however, nickel fell 1.56% on the LME to $16,980 per tonne after Presidential Chief of Staff Dudung Abdurachman clarified that the new rare earth testing rule applies only when rare earths are the main product, releasing over 100 delayed vessels. The 2025 ore grade across Indonesia's laterite deposits declined an estimated 8% and is tracking toward a further 4–5% deterioration in 2026, tightening supply even without policy intervention.
市场正在实时反应。镍生铁持续供给过剩——国际镍研究组估计2025年全球过剩约21.2万吨，今年预计进一步扩大——而电池级材料供应紧张，任何供应扰动信号都会引发价格飙升。然而，8月4日镍在伦敦金属交易所下跌1.56%至每吨16,980美元，因总统幕僚长杜东·阿卜杜拉赫曼澄清新的稀土检测规则仅适用于稀土为初级产品的情形，释放了100多艘滞留船舶。2025年印尼红土矿床矿石品位估计下降8%，2026年预计再恶化4%–5%，即便没有政策干预，供应也将收紧。
For Chinese BRI investors — from Tsingshan and Huayou Cobalt to GEM and CATL-linked supply chains — the message is clear: Indonesia is no longer maximizing raw ore output but deciding what that ore becomes. The days of unfettered access to cheap Indonesian nickel are over, replaced by a regime that steers mining rights toward battery-grade refining, taxes byproduct metals, and resets pricing power on an annual cycle.
对于中国一带一路投资者——从青山、华友钴业到格林美及宁德时代关联供应链——信号已十分明确：印尼不再追求最大化原矿产量，而是决定这些矿石的最终形态。不受限制地获取廉价印尼镍矿的时代已经结束，取而代之的是一个将采矿权导向电池级精炼、对副产品金属征税、并按年度周期重新定价的新体制。
*Data sources: Asia Times (July 30, 2026), ANTARA News (July 2026), Finimize (August 4, 2026), Discovery Alert (August 2026), International Nickel Study Group.*
*数据来源：《亚洲时报》（2026年7月30日）、安塔拉通讯社（2026年7月）、Finimize（2026年8月4日）、Discovery Alert（2026年8月）、国际镍研究组。*
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