BRI's Great Reshuffle: Private Capital Surges to 47.7% Share as Green Energy Overtakes Fossil Fuels for the First Time

产业逻辑 · Global · 2026

一带一路大洗牌:民营企业参与占比升至47.7%,绿色能源首次超过化石能源

China's Belt and Road Initiative recorded its strongest first-half performance since inception in 2013, with total engagement reaching $126.4 billion across approximately 186 deals in the first six months of 2026, according to a report jointly published by the University of Queensland's Business School and the Green Finance & Development Center on August 2, 2026. The figure breaks down into $49.8 billion in investment and $76.5 billion in construction contracts — both first-half records.

据澳大利亚昆士兰大学商学院与绿色金融发展中心8月2日联合发布的报告,2026年上半年中国"一带一路"参与规模达约1264亿美元、涉及约186笔交易,创下该倡议自2013年启动以来的上半年最高纪录。其中投资498亿美元、建设合同765亿美元,均为上半年历史新高。

The headline numbers are striking, but the real story lies in the structural transformation underway. Three shifts define the new BRI landscape. First, private Chinese companies now account for 47.7% of total BRI engagement, up from just 12.5 percent in 2020. While state-owned enterprises still dominate construction, private firms are taking the lead in investment — particularly in technology, manufacturing, and energy — reshaping the initiative from a state-driven program into a commercially grounded platform.

总量数字固然亮眼,但真正的变化在于结构性转型。三大转变定义了新的"一带一路"格局。第一,民营企业占"一带一路"总参与的比重已升至47.7%,而2020年仅为12.5%。国有企业仍主导建设合同,但民营企业在投资端——尤其在科技、制造和能源领域——正成为主力,推动倡议从国家主导项目向商业驱动平台转变。

Second, green energy engagement reached 56% of total energy-related investment, surpassing fossil fuels for the first time. Of the $36.3 billion in energy-sector engagement during H1 2026, more than half was classified as green — including wind, solar, waste-to-energy, and hydropower. More than 20 gigawatts of green electricity projects were confirmed through investment and construction, exceeding the full-year total for 2025. Christoph Nedopil, lead author of the report, noted that continued global trade frictions and fossil fuel volatility could further push Chinese engagement toward renewables.

第二,绿色能源参与占能源相关投资的56%,首次超过化石能源。2026年上半年能源领域参与规模363亿美元中,超过一半被归类为绿色项目——包括风电、光伏、垃圾发电和水电。超过20吉瓦的绿色电力项目通过投资和建设合同确认,已超过2025年全年总量。报告主要作者Christoph Nedopil指出,持续的全球贸易摩擦和化石燃料价格波动可能进一步推动中国参与向可再生能源倾斜。

Third, Africa has emerged as the dominant destination, attracting $33.5 billion in Chinese BRI investment — up 254 percent year-on-year — and accounting for 67.24% of global BRI investment. Ethiopia alone captured over $18.9 billion, led by Mingyang Smart Energy's $14.17 billion green energy megadeal covering 8.4 GW of wind and solar capacity plus green ammonia production. Egypt followed with $12.2 billion, including a $10 billion steel mill in the Suez Gulf.

第三,非洲成为主导性投资目的地,吸引中国"一带一路"投资335亿美元——同比增长254%——占全球"一带一路"投资的67.24%。仅埃塞俄比亚一国就超过189亿美元,以明阳智慧能源141.7亿美元绿色能源超级协议为首,涵盖84亿瓦风光发电及绿氨生产。埃及紧随其后达122亿美元,其中包括苏伊士湾100亿美元的钢铁厂项目。

The surge in metals and mining engagement — a record $21.8 billion — also signals a strategic pivot toward processing and supply-chain security rather than raw extraction. Meanwhile, transport engagement rose for the first time since 2020, hitting $18.2 billion via construction contracts, underscoring continued infrastructure demand along BRI corridors.

金属与矿产领域参与规模创纪录达218亿美元,也标志着战略重心从原料开采转向加工与供应链安全保障。同时,交通领域参与自2020年以来首次增长,达182亿美元(均为建设合同),凸显"一带一路"走廊基础设施需求的持续性。

For Chinese companies navigating the next wave of globalization, the message is clear: the BRI is no longer a story of state-backed megaprojects. It is becoming a diversified, commercially driven ecosystem where private capital, green technology, and manufacturing localization are the new engines of growth.

对于正在布局下一波全球化的中国企业而言,信号已十分明确:"一带一路"不再是大国重器的故事,它正在演变为一个多元化、商业驱动的生态系统——民营资本、绿色技术和制造业本地化,正在成为新的增长引擎。

律启 LEXBRIDGE · 出海观察 · 更新于 2026

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