ADB Cuts Asia-Pacific Growth Forecast to 4.9% for 2026 Amid Global Energy Crisis

亚行下调2026年亚太增长预期至4.9%：能源危机下中国投资者的机遇与风险

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its 2026 growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.9%, down from 5.5% in 2025, according to its latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) released on July 8, 2026. This represents a 0.2 percentage point reduction from April projections, as prolonged disruptions to energy markets caused by the Middle East conflict weigh more heavily on the region than previously anticipated.

亚洲开发银行（ADB）在其2026年7月8日发布的最新《亚洲发展展望》（ADO）中，将2026年亚洲及太平洋发展中经济体的增长预测下调至4.9%，而2025年为5.5%。这比4月份的预测下调了0.2个百分点，反映出中东冲突导致的能源市场持续动荡对该地区的冲击超出预期。

ADB Chief Economist Albert Park noted that although a framework agreement was signed in June, disruptions are expected to unwind only gradually. Regional inflation is now forecast at 4.3% for 2026, up from 3.0% in 2025 — an upward revision of 0.7 percentage points since April. "Economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific remains resilient, but persistent headwinds require a careful policy balance," Park said.

亚行首席经济学家Albert Park指出，虽然6月已签署框架协议，但能源市场动荡预计只会逐步缓解。2026年区域通胀预测上调至4.3%，高于2025年的3.0%——较4月预测上调0.7个百分点。Park表示："亚太发展中经济体的增长仍然具备韧性，但持续的不利因素需要在支持增长和抑制通胀之间谨慎平衡。"

China's growth forecast remains unchanged at 4.6% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027, supported by strong exports and infrastructure investment, including the "Six Networks" initiative covering power grids, computing, communications, water systems, underground pipelines, and logistics. However, weak consumer sentiment persists — retail sales fell 0.6% year-on-year in May 2026, the first decline since December 2022. Meanwhile, high-tech exports surged, with chip exports more than doubling year-on-year in May.

中国2026年增长预测维持4.6%不变，2027年为4.5%，受益于强劲的出口和基础设施投资——包括覆盖电网、算力、通信、水利、地下管网和物流的"六网"计划。但消费信心疲软——2026年5月零售销售同比下降0.6%，为2022年12月以来首次下降。而高科技出口表现强劲，5月芯片出口同比增长超过一倍。

For developing Southeast Asia, growth is revised down to 4.6% with significant variation across economies. Vietnam remains the region's fastest-growing economy at 7.2%, while the Philippines saw a notable downward adjustment to 3.8% from 4.4%. India's growth forecast was revised down to 6.6% as higher energy costs squeeze domestic demand.

东南亚发展中经济体方面，增长预测下调至4.6%，各国差异显著。越南仍以7.2%的增速领跑，而菲律宾从4.4%大幅下调至3.8%。印度预测下调至6.6%，受能源成本上涨挤压内需。

For Chinese companies investing overseas, the ADB report highlights several key takeaways. First, inflation differentials across countries create uneven cost environments — the Philippines faces 5.9% inflation while Vietnam's remains stable. Second, supply chain disruptions from Middle East shipping routes are raising freight costs and input prices, particularly affecting manufacturing operations in Southeast Asia. Third, the report's special analysis on US tariff policy warns that developing Asia remains the region most exposed to elevated US tariffs, with Section 301 investigations ongoing. Fourth, higher energy and fertilizer costs are threatening food security, particularly in countries dependent on imported fertilizer — a factor that could impact agribusiness investments.

对中国出海企业而言，亚行报告揭示了几个关键信号。第一，各国通胀差异导致运营成本环境分化——菲律宾通胀达5.9%，而越南保持稳定。第二，中东航运路线中断引发的供应链问题正在推高运费和原材料成本，尤其影响东南亚制造业。第三，报告关于美国关税政策的特别分析警示，亚太发展中经济体仍是受美国高关税影响最大的地区，301条款调查仍在进行中。第四，能源和化肥成本上涨正威胁粮食安全，尤其影响依赖进口化肥的国家——这可能冲击农业领域投资。

The report suggests that while headwinds persist, growth fundamentals in developing Asia remain solid. For Chinese investors, the key is to navigate the diverging country-level outlooks: Vietnam and Indonesia show resilient growth trajectories, while the Philippines and Cambodia face greater near-term challenges. The ADB's 2027 growth forecast of 5.1% signals that the region's medium-term prospects remain constructive.

报告表明，尽管逆风持续，亚太发展中经济体的增长基本面依然稳固。对中国投资者而言，核心在于把握各国差异化前景：越南和印尼增长轨迹稳健，菲律宾和柬埔寨短期挑战较大。亚行对2027年5.1%的增长预测表明，该地区中期前景仍然积极。