The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its 2026 growth forecast for developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.9%, down from 5.5% in 2025 and 0.2 percentage points below its April projection. The revision, published in the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2026, reflects the deepening impact of the Middle East conflict on energy markets, supply chains, and inflationary pressures across the region.
亚洲开发银行（ADB）将2026年亚洲及太平洋发展中经济体增长预期下调至4.9%，低于2025年的5.5%，较4月预测下调0.2个百分点。亚行7月发布的《2026年亚洲发展展望》指出，中东冲突对能源市场、供应链和通胀压力的影响正在加深。
The outlook is not uniform. Developing East Asia is the only subregion spared from downgrades, with China's forecast held at 4.6% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027, supported by strong exports and infrastructure investment. India's growth forecast, meanwhile, has been revised down to 6.6% this year as higher energy costs weigh on domestic demand. Southeast Asia and the Pacific also saw downward revisions, reflecting weaker domestic demand, softer tourism, rising inflation, and higher import costs.
各次区域前景并不一致。东亚发展中经济体是唯一未被下调的区域，中国2026年增速预期维持在4.6%，2027年为4.5%，受益于强劲出口和基建投资。印度增长预期下调至6.6%，因能源成本上升拖累内需。东南亚和太平洋地区同样被下调，反映出内需疲软、旅游业放缓、通胀上升和进口成本走高等多重压力。
Caucasus and Central and West Asia saw its forecast cut to 3.8% for 2026, with Armenia's outlook lowered due to Russian trade restrictions and Türkiye facing weaker Q1 growth and higher fuel costs.
高加索及中亚西亚地区2026年增速下调至3.8%，亚美尼亚因俄罗斯贸易限制被调低，土耳其则面临Q1增长放缓和燃料成本上升。
Regional inflation is now forecast at 4.3% in 2026, up from 3.0% in 2025 — a sharp 0.7 percentage point upward revision from April. ADB Chief Economist Albert Park warned that "durable implementation of the framework agreement would help normalize global energy markets, but the pace of adjustment is highly uncertain with significant downside risks." The Middle East conflict has created the largest oil supply disruption ever recorded, though high inventories and emergency stock releases have prevented extreme price spikes.
区域通胀预期升至4.3%（2025年为3.0%），较4月大幅上调0.7个百分点。亚行首席经济学家Albert Park指出，"框架协议的持久实施有助于能源市场正常化，但调整节奏极不确定，下行风险显著。"中东冲突已造成有记录以来最大规模的石油供应中断，但高库存和紧急储备释放避免了极端价格飙升。
Beyond energy prices, the ADB identifies several structural risks: shipping route disruptions causing longer delivery times and higher freight costs, elevated tariffs particularly from the United States, and trade policy uncertainty. The bank notes that "developing Asia and the Pacific remains the region most exposed to elevated US tariffs," with Section 301 investigations potentially widening trade restrictions.
能源价格之外，亚行还指出了若干结构性风险：航运路线中断导致交货时间延长和运费上涨、美国加征关税以及贸易政策不确定性。报告指出"亚太发展中经济体仍是受美国高关税影响最严重的区域"，301条款调查可能进一步扩大贸易限制。
For businesses and investors operating in Asia-Pacific markets, three implications stand out. First, currency and inflation risks are elevated — companies should stress-test pricing models and review hedging strategies. Second, sectoral divergences matter: infrastructure and export-oriented sectors backed by government spending may outperform consumer-facing industries hit by inflation. Third, policy responses are evolving — the ADB has updated its countercyclical support facility, contingent disaster financing, and emergency assistance loan to help members manage energy and food price shocks, which could create procurement opportunities for firms in energy security, agriculture, and social protection.
对于在亚太市场运营的企业和投资者，三个关键信号值得关注。其一，汇率与通胀风险升高——企业应对定价模型进行压力测试，审视对冲策略。其二，行业分化加剧——受政府支出支撑的基建和出口导向型行业可能跑赢受通胀冲击的消费端行业。其三，政策应对正在升级——亚行已更新其逆周期支持工具、应急灾害融资和紧急援助贷款机制，以帮助成员国应对能源和食品价格冲击，这可能在能源安全、农业和社会保障领域为相关企业创造采购和项目机会。
ADB's 2027 growth forecast is maintained at 5.1%, suggesting that the bank sees current disruptions as temporary rather than structural — but only if the Middle East framework agreement holds and trade tensions do not escalate further.
亚行对2027年增长预期维持在5.1%，表明该行认为当前冲击是暂时的——但前提是中东框架协议得到落实，且贸易紧张局势不再升级。
*Sources: Asian Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2026 (published 8 July 2026)*
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