AidData's latest research on China's global energy finance reveals a structural shift in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) energy portfolio. While coal financing has dominated headlines for a decade, new data from the William & Mary research lab shows that renewable energy projects now account for over 60% of China's overseas energy lending in 2025–2026, up from just 15% a decade ago.
AidData关于中国全球能源融资的最新研究揭示了一带一路（BRI）能源投资组合的结构性转变。尽管煤炭融资十年来一直占据头条，威廉玛丽学院研究实验室的新数据显示，可再生能源项目在2025-2026年已占中国海外能源贷款的60%以上，而十年前这一比例仅为15%。
According to AidData's geospatial tracking, China's overseas energy finance has pivoted decisively:
根据AidData的地理空间追踪，中国海外能源融资已发生决定性转向：
- Coal share of total energy lending: dropped from 70% in 2014–2018 to approximately 20% in 2025–2026
- 煤炭占能源贷款总额比例：从2014-2018年的70% 降至2025-2026年的约20%
- Solar and wind now lead: combined 42% of new commitments in 2025–2026
- 太阳能和风能目前领先：2025-2026年合计占新增承诺的42%
- Hydropower accounts for another 18%, concentrated in Southeast Asia and East Africa
- 水电占另外的18%，主要集中在东南亚和东非
- Transmission and grid modernization infrastructure: growing at 25% year-on-year
- 输电和电网现代化基础设施：以25%的同比增速增长
The shift is driven by both supply-side (China's domestic overcapacity in solar and wind manufacturing) and demand-side (host countries' growing preference for clean energy, particularly amid the Middle East energy crisis) factors.
这一转变受到供给侧（中国国内太阳能和风能制造产能过剩）和需求侧（东道国对清洁能源日益增长的偏好，尤其是在中东能源危机背景下）的双重推动。
Southeast Asia remains the largest destination for BRI renewable finance. Vietnam has emerged as a top recipient, with Chinese-financed solar and wind projects adding over 5 GW of capacity in 2025 alone. Indonesia, despite its earlier emphasis on nickel smelting powered by coal, has signed new MOUs for solar parks in West Java and East Kalimantan that prioritize renewable generation. Cambodia's Stung Treng hydropower project (with 980 MW capacity) represents one of the largest single BRI clean energy investments.
东南亚仍是一带一路可再生能源融资的最大目的地。越南已成为最大受援国之一，仅2025年中国融资的太阳能和风电项目就新增了超过5吉瓦容量。印尼尽管此前强调以煤电驱动的镍冶炼，但已签署了西爪哇和东加里曼丹太阳能园区的新谅解备忘录，优先发展可再生能源。柬埔寨的上丁水电站项目（980兆瓦容量）是最大的单一BRI清洁能源投资项目之一。
Africa shows accelerating momentum. South Africa's Redstone Solar Thermal Power and Kenya's Lake Turkana Wind Power expansion are backed by Chinese development finance. Morocco, with its Noor Midelt solar complex, continues to deepen renewable cooperation with Chinese developers.
非洲势头加速。南非的红石光热电站和肯尼亚图尔卡纳湖风电扩建项目获得中国开发性融资支持。摩洛哥凭借努尔-米德尔特太阳能综合设施，持续深化与中国开发商的清洁能源合作。
Latin America is an emerging frontier — Argentina's Cauchari solar park and Brazil's wind farm projects in the northeast are attracting growing shares of BRI clean energy finance.
拉丁美洲是新兴前沿——阿根廷高查瑞太阳能园区和巴西东北部风电场项目正在吸引不断增加的一带一路清洁能源融资份额。
The BRI energy transition creates several actionable insights for businesses:
一带一路能源转型为企业带来了若干可操作的洞察：
Equipment and technology exports: Chinese solar panel and wind turbine manufacturers are increasingly using BRI projects as export channels. Companies in the supply chain for inverters, tracking systems, and energy storage integration will find growing demand.
设备和技术出口： 中国太阳能电池板和风力发电机制造商越来越多地通过BRI项目输出产能。逆变器、跟踪系统和储能集成供应链中的企业将发现需求增长。
Project development and EPC: International engineering, procurement, and construction firms specializing in renewable projects can partner with Chinese developers on BRI projects, particularly in regions where Chinese technology requires local regulatory expertise and community engagement.
项目开发和EPC： 专注于可再生能源项目的国际工程采购建设公司可与中方开发商在BRI项目上合作，特别是在中国技术需要本地监管专业知识和社区参与的区域。
Grid and storage infrastructure: The rapid buildup of renewable generation is creating demand for grid modernization and energy storage solutions. AidData notes that transmission infrastructure financing is the fastest-growing segment of BRI energy finance.
电网和储能基础设施： 可再生能源发电的快速建设正在创造电网现代化和储能解决方案的需求。AidData指出，输电基础设施融资是BRI能源融资中增长最快的部分。
AidData's concurrent research on China's sovereign lending portfolio and debt restructuring playbook adds important context. As renewable projects carry different risk profiles than coal — typically smaller ticket sizes, distributed generation models, and shorter construction periods — the shift may also improve the debt sustainability profile of BRI energy investments compared to the large-scale coal plants of the past decade.
AidData同步开展的关于中国主权贷款组合和债务重组操作手册的研究提供了重要背景。由于可再生能源项目的风险特征不同于煤炭项目——通常规模更小、采用分布式发电模式、建设周期更短——这一转变也可能改善BRI能源投资的债务可持续性状况，相比过去十年的大型煤电项目而言。
For Chinese and international stakeholders alike, the message is clear: the BRI is no longer the coal-intensive program of its first decade. The energy transition is underway, and the investment opportunities are shifting with it.
对于中国和国际利益相关方而言，信息是明确的：BRI不再是其第一个十年的煤炭密集型计划。能源转型正在进行，投资机遇也随之转移。
*Sources: AidData at William & Mary, World Bank Energy Sector Reports, ADB Energy Outlook, individual country MOU announcements (2025–2026)*
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