World Bank: Emerging Market Growth to Slow to 3.8% in 2026 on Middle East Conflict / 世界银行：受中东冲突拖累，新兴市场2026年增速放缓至3.8%

政策核心：增速下修

The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects projects that growth will decelerate across all emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) regions in 2026, with overall EMDE growth slowing to 3.8% in 2026 before recovering to 4.5% in 2027.

世界银行《全球经济展望》预计，2026年所有新兴市场与发展中经济体（EMDE）区域增速都将放缓，整体增速降至2026年的3.8%，随后在2027年回升至4.5%。

The primary driver cited is the Middle East conflict, which weighs on activity through energy prices, trade routes and investor confidence.

报告指出的首要拖累因素是中东冲突，其通过能源价格、贸易通道与投资者信心三个渠道压制经济活动。

区域分化：中东首当其冲

For the Middle East region, growth excluding Iran is expected to slow from 4.0% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026 — a downward revision of 2.4 percentage points.

中东地区（不含伊朗）的增速预计将从2025年的4.0%放缓至2026年的1.8%，下修幅度达2.4个百分点。

| 指标 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |

|---|---|---|---|

| EMDE整体增速 | — | 3.8% | 4.5% |

| 中东（不含伊朗）| 4.0% | 1.8% | — |

A separate assessment warns that EMDEs face the weakest per capita income growth in an environment where global growth slows to 2.5% in 2026.

另有评估警告，在全球增速于2026年放缓至2.5%的环境下，EMDEs面临最弱的人均收入增长。

企业该做什么

For Chinese firms with exposure to emerging markets, the 3.8% figure should feed directly into country-level revenue forecasts. A 2.4-percentage-point downward revision in the Middle East is material for project pipelines and payment cycles.

对涉足新兴市场的中资企业，3.8%这一数字应直接进入国别收入预测。中东地区2.4个百分点的下修，对项目储备与回款周期都有实质影响。

Second, counterparty and sovereign-risk reviews should be refreshed. When growth slows faster than expected, fiscal positions and payment behaviour deteriorate with a lag; early review avoids being caught in arrears.

其次，应重新做交易对手与主权风险审查。当增速放缓快于预期时，财政状况与付款行为会滞后恶化；提前审查可避免陷入欠款泥潭。

Third, the 2027 recovery to 4.5% suggests a phasing strategy rather than exit. Firms may schedule capital deployment so that commitments with long lead times land as conditions improve.

第三，2027年回升至4.5%意味着应采取分期策略而非撤退。企业可安排资本投入节奏，使前置期较长的承诺在环境改善时落地。

对企业出海的意义

A downward revision of this magnitude changes the arithmetic of emerging-market projects. Hurdle rates calibrated to 4%+ regional growth need to be re-tested against a 1.8% regional figure, and margin assumptions that relied on volume growth may no longer hold.

The per-capita income warning is the more durable signal. Growth that is concentrated in aggregate GDP while per-capita incomes stagnate produces weak domestic demand for consumer-facing exports, even if headline numbers look stable.

The practical posture is selective: continue in markets with confirmed policy support and diversified revenue bases, defer those where the business case rested on the growth number itself. The 2027 rebound is real, but it rewards firms that survive 2026 with balance sheets intact.