China's CPEC Financing Friction: Pakistan Weighs Self-Funding $1.8 Billion Karakoram Highway Relocation as Dam Deadline Looms

中巴经济走廊融资摩擦：大坝淹没倒计时，巴基斯坦考虑自筹18亿美元喀喇昆仑公路改线

Pakistan is preparing to ask China to open the $1.8 billion Karakoram Highway relocation project to competitive bidding by top Pakistani contractors, while simultaneously weighing the option of financing the strategic road from its own resources — a move that signals growing friction in the financing model underpinning the flagship China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

巴基斯坦正准备请求中国将18亿美元的喀喇昆仑公路改线项目向巴基斯坦顶尖承包商开放竞标，同时也在考虑自筹资金建设这条战略公路——此举标志着中巴经济走廊旗舰项目融资模式出现裂痕。

The urgency is driven by a hard deadline: a 280-kilometer stretch of the existing Karakoram Highway will be submerged by May 2028 following the completion of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam. The replacement road, estimated at Rs 502 billion (approximately $1.8 billion), must be completed before the reservoir begins filling, leaving roughly 20 months for construction once all approvals are in place. Phase I alone carries a price tag of Rs 320 billion ($1.1 billion), according to a joint feasibility study.

紧迫性源于一个硬性截止日期：迪阿莫-巴沙大坝预计2028年5月完工后，现有280公里的喀喇昆仑公路将被水库淹没。替代公路估算造价为5020亿卢比（约合18亿美元），必须在水库蓄水前完工。一旦所有审批到位，建设工期仅剩约20个月。仅一期工程就需3200亿卢比（11亿美元）。

The financing standoff revolves around loan terms. China and Pakistan agreed in principle in May 2025 that Beijing would finance 85% of the project, with Islamabad covering the remainder. However, over a year later, no financing agreement has been signed. Pakistani authorities have sent multiple letters through the Ministries of Communications, Economic Affairs, and Planning requesting finalization — and received no substantive response until last month, when Beijing proposed a technical working group meeting to review costs.

融资僵局的核心是贷款条款。中巴双方2025年5月原则同意由中国提供85%融资，巴基斯坦承担剩余部分。但一年多后，融资协议仍未签署。巴基斯坦通过交通部、经济事务部和规划部多次致函请求敲定协议，直到上月才得到回应——北京提议召开技术工作组会议审查成本。

The key disagreement: Pakistan is seeking a concessionary loan, while China has indicated a preference for commercial financing. This shift from concessional to commercial terms mirrors a broader trend in China's Belt and Road lending, where Beijing has increasingly moved away from subsidized credit toward market-based instruments since the early 2020s.

关键分歧在于：巴基斯坦寻求优惠贷款，而中国倾向于商业融资。从优惠条件转向商业条款，反映了中国一带一路贷款模式的更广泛变化——自2020年代初以来，北京已逐步从补贴型信贷转向市场化工具。

A Joint Technical Working Group meeting is tentatively scheduled for late August in Beijing. Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal has directed officials to prepare updated cost estimates under a domestic-construction scenario. Under National Highway Authority rates using local contractors, Phase I costs could drop by an estimated 35% — from Rs 320 billion to approximately Rs 208 billion.

中巴联合技术工作组会议暂定8月底在北京举行。规划部长阿赫桑·伊克巴尔已指示官员编制国内建设方案下的更新成本估算。按巴基斯坦国家公路局费率，若由本土承包商承建，一期工程成本可降低约35%——从3200亿卢比降至约2080亿卢比。

Pakistan also plans to request an amendment to the existing government-to-government framework agreement, which currently restricts competition to three Chinese companies — a model that has applied to all CPEC infrastructure projects since the corridor's inception over a decade ago. Islamabad now wants qualified Pakistani firms included in the bidding process.

巴基斯坦还计划请求修改现有政府间框架协议，该协议目前将竞争限制在三家中国公司——这一模式自中巴经济走廊启动十多年来适用于所有基础设施项目。伊斯兰堡现在希望将合格的巴基斯坦企业纳入竞标过程。

"If there is further delay, Pakistan may start implementing the project through its own resources due to the urgency of having an alternative road before the existing one submerges," Iqbal told The Express Tribune. This marks the first time a senior Pakistani official has publicly floated self-financing for a major CPEC infrastructure project.

"如果继续拖延，巴基斯坦可能动用自有资源启动该项目，因为必须在现有道路被淹前建成替代道路，"伊克巴尔对《论坛快报》表示。这是巴基斯坦高级官员首次公开提出对中巴经济走廊重大基础设施项目自筹资金。

The Karakoram Highway remains the only all-weather road link between China and Pakistan, serving as the physical backbone of CPEC and carrying an increasing volume of bilateral trade. Its potential submersion without a completed replacement would sever the primary ground corridor connecting western China to the Arabian Sea, dealing a strategic blow to the connectivity ambitions of the Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia.

喀喇昆仑公路仍是中巴之间唯一的全天候公路通道，是中巴经济走廊的物理骨干，承担着日益增长的双边贸易运输。若在替代道路完工前被淹没，将切断连接中国西部与阿拉伯海的主要陆路走廊，对一带一路在南亚的互联互通雄心造成战略性打击。