Indonesia's mineral downstream policy, a centerpiece of President Joko Widodo's economic legacy, has entered its second phase as of mid-2026. The government has signaled new restrictions on foreign investment in medium-grade nickel processing facilities (nickel pig iron and ferronickel), while opening — and conditioning — access to high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) projects for battery-grade materials.
印尼矿产下游化政策作为佐科总统经济遗产的核心组成部分，已于2026年年中进入第二阶段。政府已释放信号，将对中级镍加工设施（镍生铁和镍铁）的外国投资实施新限制，同时有条件开放高压酸浸（HPAL）项目的准入通道。
According to Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), over 140 nickel smelter projects have been planned or constructed across the archipelago since the 2020 export ban on raw nickel ore, representing a cumulative investment exceeding $38 billion. However, the government now acknowledges that the rapid expansion of medium-grade smelters has saturated the domestic market for nickel pig iron (NPI), with utilization rates falling below 65% in Sulawesi's Morowali Industrial Park.
据印尼投资协调委员会（BKPM）数据，自2020年原镍矿出口禁令实施以来，全国已规划或建设了超过140个镍冶炼厂项目，累计投资额超过380亿美元。但政府现在承认，中级冶炼厂的快速扩张已导致国内市场镍生铁（NPI）饱和，苏拉威西莫罗瓦利工业园区的产能利用率已降至65%以下。
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) recently indicated that new NPI and ferronickel permits will be limited to investors who commit to full integration with downstream battery or stainless steel finishing plants. "The era of simply processing raw ore into semi-finished products is over," a senior ministry official told reporters in Jakarta in late June. "We want every new investment to include a value-added component."
印尼能矿部（ESDM）近期表示，新的NPI和镍铁许可证将限于承诺与下游电池或不锈钢成品工厂全面整合的投资者。"简单将原矿加工成半成品的时代已经结束，"一位能矿部高级官员6月底在雅加达对记者表示，"我们希望每一个新投资都包含增值环节。"
For HPAL projects — which produce nickel-cobalt mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) for EV battery supply chains — the government is maintaining a more welcoming stance but imposing stricter environmental and local content requirements. A new regulation requires HPAL investors to allocate at least 10% of output to domestic battery manufacturers at preferential pricing, and to achieve 60% local workforce within five years of operation.
对于高压酸浸（HPAL）项目——生产电动汽车电池供应链所需的镍钴混合氢氧化物沉淀（MHP）——政府保持了更为欢迎的态度，但附加了更严格的环境和本地成分要求。一项新规要求HPAL投资者将至少10%的产出以优惠价格供应给国内电池制造商，并在运营五年内实现60%的本地劳动力占比。
Chinese investors, who dominate Indonesia's nickel processing landscape — accounting for approximately 70% of total smelting capacity — are closely watching these policy shifts. Companies such as Tsingshan Holding Group and Huayou Cobalt have already begun pivoting toward fully integrated EV battery supply chain parks in Kalimantan and Halmahera.
在印尼镍加工产业中占据主导地位的中国投资者——约占总冶炼产能的70%——正在密切关注这些政策变化。青山控股集团和华友钴业等企业已开始向加里曼丹和哈马黑拉岛的电动汽车电池全产业链园区转型。
Industry implications for Chinese outbound investors:
For Chinese enterprises considering or currently operating nickel-related investments in Indonesia, the key takeaways are threefold: First, new NPI/ferronickel projects face high barriers unless fully integrated downstream. Second, HPAL projects remain viable but must comply with enhanced local content and offtake obligations. Third, the window for establishing strategic partnerships with Indonesian state-owned enterprises (notably PT Aneka Tambang and PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium) is narrowing as domestic capacity matures.
对中国出海投资者的行业影响：
对于正在考虑或已在印尼运营镍相关投资的中国企业，核心要点有三：第一，新的NPI/镍铁项目除非实现全面下游整合，否则面临高壁垒；第二，HPAL项目仍具可行性，但须满足增强的本地成分和承购义务；第三，与印尼国有企业（特别是安塔姆公司和印尼阿萨汉铝业）建立战略合作伙伴关系的窗口正在收窄，因国内产能日趋成熟。
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Policies may have changed since publication. Verification of current regulations with licensed professionals is recommended.
免责声明： 本文仅供参考，不构成投资建议。政策可能在发布后发生变化，建议向持牌专业人士核实当前法规。
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perspective: global
country: 越南 (Vietnam)
source: 越南计划投资部 / 越南财政部 / VNExpress
author: 律启 · 出海观察
category: 财税解读
---
Vietnam's implementation of the OECD's Global Minimum Tax (GMT) rules, which came into full effect in 2026, is fundamentally reshaping the country's foreign investment landscape. Since Vietnam's National Assembly passed Resolution 107/2023/QH15 in late 2023, the country has been transitioning from its traditional tax holiday model toward a Top-Up Tax (TUT) regime for multinational enterprises (MNEs) with consolidated revenues exceeding €750 million.
越南自2026年全面落地的OECD全球最低税（GMT）规则，正从根本上重塑该国的外商投资格局。自越南国会于2023年底通过第107/2023/QH15号决议以来，该国已从传统的税收减免模式向针对合并收入超过7.5亿欧元的跨国企业（MNEs）的补足税（TUT）制度过渡。
Under the new regime, foreign-invested enterprises that previously enjoyed Vietnam's preferential tax incentives — such as the 10% CIT rate for 15 years or "4+9+2" tax holiday packages — may now face additional tax liabilities to reach the 15% effective minimum rate. The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) estimates that approximately 150-170 foreign-invested enterprises currently operating in Vietnam will be affected, including major Chinese, Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese manufacturing groups in electronics, textiles, and renewable energy.
根据新制度，此前享受越南税收优惠政策——如15年10%的企业所得税率或"4免9减半2再减半"等税收优惠包——的外资企业，现在可能面临额外的补缴税额，以达到15%的实际最低税率。越南计划投资部（MPI）估计，目前在越南运营的约150-170家外资企业将受到影响，包括电子、纺织和可再生能源领域的中国、韩国、日本和台湾大型制造集团。
How the Top-Up Tax works in practice:
Vietnam has adopted the Income Inclusion Rule (IIR) and the Undertaxed Profits Rule (UTPR) under Pillar Two of the OECD framework. The Qualified Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (QDMTT) means that Vietnam itself will collect the top-up tax rather than leaving it to the parent company's jurisdiction. As a result, provinces that have traditionally competed for FDI through tax incentives — such as Bac Ninh, Dong Nai, and Thai Nguyen — are reassessing their investment promotion strategies.
补足税的实际运作方式：
越南已采纳OECD支柱二框架下的收入纳入规则（IIR）和低税利润规则（UTPR）。合格国内最低补足税（QDMTT）意味着越南将自行征收补足税，而非留待母公司所在国征收。因此，传统上通过税收激励竞争FDI的各省——如北宁、同奈和太原——正在重新评估其招商引资策略。
According to a recent report by the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), over 60% of surveyed foreign investors indicated that Vietnam's GMT implementation would influence their expansion decisions. However, the government has countered with a series of compensatory measures. In early 2026, the MPI proposed a Direct Cash Support Mechanism for high-tech and R&D-intensive projects, offering direct subsidies calculated as a percentage of eligible R&D expenditures — a move designed to maintain Vietnam's competitiveness without violating GMT rules.
据越南工商会（VCCI）近期报告，超过60%的受访外资投资者表示，越南的GMT实施将影响其扩张决策。然而，政府已推出一系列补偿措施作为回应。2026年初，MPI提出了一项针对高科技和研发密集型项目的直接现金支持机制，按照符合条件的研发支出比例提供直接补贴——此举旨在不违反GMT规则的前提下保持越南的竞争力。
For Chinese companies operating in or entering Vietnam's manufacturing sector, the key adjustment is shifting from a tax-optimization-driven location strategy to a fundamentals-driven one. Provinces like Bac Giang and Quang Ninh, which offer strong infrastructure, logistics access, and labor availability rather than generous tax breaks, are becoming more attractive relative to traditional tax-haven provinces.
对于在越南运营或进入越南制造业的中国企业来说，关键调整在于从税收优化驱动的选址策略转向基本面驱动策略。北江和广宁等提供强大基础设施、物流通达性和劳动力供应的省份——而非提供优厚税收减免的省份——相对于传统的税收优惠省份变得更具吸引力。
"The GMT is actually a healthy correction for Vietnam's FDI market," said a Hanoi-based investment consultant who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Investors who came purely for tax savings will leave, but those committed to building real manufacturing capacity will stay and thrive."
"全球最低税实际上是对越南FDI市场的一次健康修正，"一位匿名的河内投资顾问表示，"仅为了节税而来的投资者会离开，但那些致力于建设真正制造能力的投资者会留下并蓬勃发展。"
What investors should do now:
1. Review existing tax incentive approvals and assess uncovered top-up tax exposure
2. Explore eligibility for Vietnam's compensatory cash support schemes
3. Re-evaluate provincial location strategy based on infrastructure and labor factors, not just tax packages
投资者当前应采取的步骤：
1. 审查现有税收优惠批准情况，评估未覆盖的补足税风险敞口
2. 探索获得越南补偿性现金支持计划的资格
3. 基于基础设施和劳动力因素（而非仅税收优惠）重新评估省份选址策略
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute tax or legal advice. Cross-border tax implications vary by jurisdiction and corporate structure.
免责声明： 本文仅供参考，不构成税务或法律建议。跨境税务影响因司法管辖区和公司结构而异。
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perspective: global
country: 哈萨克斯坦 / 乌兹别克斯坦 (Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan)
source: 中国商务部 / 哈萨克斯坦外交部 / 亚洲基础设施投资银行
author: 律启 · 出海观察
category: 基建工程
---
Central Asia is witnessing an unprecedented infrastructure push as China and its regional partners accelerate cross-border railway projects designed to unlock new trade corridors. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, a long-delayed project first proposed in the 1990s, has finally entered its pre-construction phase in mid-2026, signaling a new era of connectivity for the landlocked region.
中亚正经历前所未有的基础设施推进浪潮，中国与该地区合作伙伴加速跨境铁路项目建设，以打通新的贸易走廊。中吉乌铁路（CKU） 这条自1990年代首次提出、长期搁置的项目，终于在2026年中期进入建设前期阶段，标志着这一内陆地区互联互通的新时代。
According to updates from China's Ministry of Commerce and the Kyrgyz Ministry of Transport, the CKU railway's feasibility study was jointly approved in early 2026, with an estimated total investment of $4.7 billion across 454 km of track. The route will begin in Kashgar, China, traverse Kyrgyzstan's southern border region via Torugart Pass, and terminate in Andijan, Uzbekistan. Once operational, the railway is expected to reduce freight transit time from China to Central Asia from the current 15-20 days by road to just 5-7 days by rail.
据中国商务部与吉尔吉斯交通部的消息，中吉乌铁路的可行性研究已于2026年初获得联合批准，全线454公里，预计总投资额为47亿美元。路线将从中国喀什出发，经吐尔尕特口岸穿越吉尔吉斯斯坦南部边境地区，终点至乌兹别克斯坦的安集延。一旦投入运营，预计货运时间将从目前公路运输的15-20天缩短至铁路运输的5-7天。
In parallel, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) — commonly known as the Middle Corridor — is undergoing major capacity upgrades. This route, which connects China to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus, and Türkiye, saw a 62% increase in container traffic in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, driven largely by shifting trade patterns away from traditional Northern Corridor routes through Russia.
与此同时，跨里海国际运输路线（TITR）——俗称"中间走廊"——正在进行重大运力升级。这条连接中国与欧洲、途经哈萨克斯坦、里海、高加索和土耳其的路线，在2026年上半年集装箱运量同比增长了62%，主要推动因素为贸易格局从传统经俄罗斯的北部走廊路线转移。
Kazakhstan has allocated $3.5 billion for railway modernization through 2028, including the construction of a new Dostyk-Moyinty railway bypass line to eliminate a notorious bottleneck on the China-Kazakhstan border. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has committed $500 million in co-financing for this project, which is expected to double the border crossing capacity to 50 million tons per year by early 2028.
哈萨克斯坦已拨款35亿美元用于到2028年的铁路现代化改造，包括建设一条新的多斯特克—莫因特铁路绕行线，以消除中哈边境上的著名运力瓶颈。亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB）已承诺为该项目提供5亿美元的联合融资，预计到2028年初将使边境通关能力翻倍至每年5000万吨。
Opportunities for Chinese infrastructure and logistics firms:
The Central Asian railway boom presents multiple entry points for Chinese enterprises. Engineering procurement and construction (EPC) contractors will find opportunities in track laying, tunnel construction (particularly the challenging 25.7 km tunnel planned through the Kyrgyz Tian Shan mountain range), and rolling stock supply. Logistics companies can capitalize on new multimodal services connecting rail, Caspian Sea ferry, and European rail networks.
中国基建和物流企业的机遇：
中亚铁路热潮为中国企业提供了多个切入点。工程总承包（EPC）企业将在铺轨、隧道建设（特别是规划的穿越吉尔吉斯天山山脉的25.7公里隧道）和车辆供应领域发现机遇。物流企业可以利用连接铁路、里海渡轮和欧洲铁路网络的新型多式联运服务。
Uzbekistan, meanwhile, has announced plans to develop a Special Industrial Zone (SIZ) in Andijan province adjacent to the CKU railway terminus, with preferential terms for Chinese investors in textile processing, agricultural equipment, and light manufacturing. The government of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has offered 10-year tax exemptions for anchor investors who establish production facilities before the railway's expected operational date of 2030.
与此同时，乌兹别克斯坦已宣布计划在安集延省开发一个毗邻中吉乌铁路终点站的特别工业区（SIZ），为纺织加工、农业设备和轻工制造领域的中国投资者提供优惠条件。米尔济约耶夫总统政府已为在铁路预计2030年投入运营前建立生产设施的核心投资者提供10年免税期。
However, challenges remain. The project's financing structure involves a complex tripartite arrangement with different gauge standards (China's 1,435 mm standard gauge transitioning to Central Asia's 1,520 mm broad gauge at the borders), requiring time-consuming transshipment. Security concerns in Kyrgyzstan's Batken region — which borders the volatile Tajikistan-Afghanistan frontier — also require mitigation planning.
然而，挑战依然存在。该项目融资结构涉及复杂的三方安排，不同轨距标准——中国的标准轨距（1,435毫米）需在边境转为中亚的宽轨距（1,520毫米）——导致需要耗时换装。吉尔吉斯斯坦巴特肯地区——紧邻不稳定的塔吉克斯坦-阿富汗边境——的安全问题也需要风险缓释规划。
Key takeaway: The CKU railway represents a generational infrastructure shift that will reshape trade flows across Eurasia. For Chinese investors, the window for securing prime locations in Uzbekistan's SIZ and positioning logistics operations along the Middle Corridor is active but narrowing.
核心要点： 中吉乌铁路代表了重塑欧亚大陆贸易流的新一代基础设施变革。对中国投资者而言，在乌兹别克斯坦特别工业区锁定核心位置以及沿中间走廊布局物流业务的窗口期正在开放，但已在收窄。
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Infrastructure project timelines and financing terms are subject to change.
免责声明： 本文仅供参考，不构成投资建议。基建项目时间表和融资条件可能发生变化。
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